Predicting with uncertainty

Wrong Track: This is what will happen.

Wrong Track: Here is what we think is most likely to happen, based on the best data and understanding.

To extrapolate is to guess

The only question is how well-supported the guess is and whether you are honest about the uncertainty.

Prediction May be at the core of what humans brains do, but it does not follow that it's always reliable. In fact it's likely that it only works because there are built in correction functions.

Trying for explicit thinking which supports prediction is necessarily subject to the same balance of probability and in flight adjustments. It's a good plan to include this aspect of making predictions right from the start.

The further forward that you cast your prediction, the more circumspect you need to be. Small discrepancies in data or model have more time to create significant differences between your expectations and what eventuates.

But planning for the future demands a long term view as many changes take a long time to put in place, from new habits leading to a changing pattern of demand to new infrastructure leading to an increased supply.